Black Swan, Grey Swan? Pandemic Scenarios and African Peace and Security Futures

Abstract

How have ‘African futures’ in the politico-security realm, if at all, narrated the threat of epidemics and pandemics? To what extent was the outbreak of something like the coronavirus part of relevant African future scenarios and, thus, could have come onto the radar of decision-makers? This article looks at how epidemics such as Ebola and pandemics like COVID-19 have been identified as threats to peace and security. First, I briefly recall how in the mid-2010s the African Union framed epidemics as a so-called non-traditional peace and security concern. Second, three prominent politico-security scenarios on African futures will be scrutinized: how are they discussing the relevance of epidemics and pandemics? The question discussed in this contribution is not whether the outbreak of COVID-19 was predictable, but to what extend it could have been on the radar of relevant decision-makers.

Biographical Note

Ulf Engel (SFB 1199 & Institute of African Studies, Leipzig University, Germany)

Trained as a political scientist, Ulf Engel is a professor at the Institute of African Studies in Leipzig. He is the director of the DFG-funded PhD Research Training Programme (GK 1261): “Critical Junctures of Globalization” (2006–2016), the co-director of the DFG Priority Programme (SPP 1448): “Adaptation and Creativity in Africa” (2011–2017), and the director of the Integrated Research Training Group of the DFG Collaborative Research Centre (SFB 1199): “Processes of Spatialization under the Global Condition”. Engel is also a visiting professor at the Institute for Peace and Security Studies at Addis Ababa University (Ethiopia), a professor extraordinary in the Department of Political Science at Stellenbosch University, and a fellow at the Stellenbosch Institute of Advanced Studies (STIAS, South Africa).